■ Live updates on ↻ ■ Manually updated curated weekly — may not reflect today
AI
AI beneficiary stocks · global · overnight & YTD
🇺🇸NVDANvidia+4.82%YTD +82%
🇺🇸MSFTMicrosoft+1.72%YTD +14%
🇺🇸AMDAMD+2.98%YTD +31%
🇺🇸ARMArm Holdings+2.21%YTD +67%
🇳🇱ASMLASML-0.42%YTD +18%
🇹🇼TSMTSMC+1.88%YTD +36%
🇯🇵6857Advantest+3.10%YTD +52%
🇯🇵6594Nidec+1.44%YTD +22%
🇬🇧SAGESage Group+0.88%YTD +19%
🇨🇳BIDUBaidu-1.20%YTD -8%
GPU · EUV · fab · cloud · model · data centre · software
CEO voices · weekly feedmanually updated
AI sentiment indexmanually updated
62/ 100 · Cautious optimism
How is this calculated?
FearNeutralGreed
Equity momentumStrong
VC deal flow+18% MoM
Patent filings+24% YoY
Social volumeHigh
Media toneMixed
Regulatory riskElevated
Updated daily · not financial advice
Markets
Global indices
S&P 500 ETF proxy
7,473
+0.37% · YTD +11.2%
FTSE 100 ETF proxy
10,466
+0.22% · YTD +27.6%
Nikkei 225 ETF proxy
65,158
+2.68% · YTD +64.5%
Hang Seng ETF proxy
25,606
+0.86% · YTD +24.9%
Macro & central banksmanually updated
Latest from central banks
Target range
3.50–3.75%
SOFR (overnight)
3.66%
Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%. FOMC minutes note a majority see further hikes warranted if inflation stays above 2%. Markets price ~40% chance of a Dec hike amid Middle East energy shock.
May 2026 · FOMC statement
Deposit rate
2.00%
€STR (overnight)
1.92%
ECB holds at 2.00%, unanimously, as Iran conflict raises near-term inflation risks. Markets fully pricing three hikes in 2026, with the first potentially at the June 11 meeting.
Jun 2026 · ECB press conference
Bank rate
3.75%
SONIA (overnight)
3.69%
BoE holds at 3.75%. MPC voted 8–1 to hold on Apr 30; one member pushed for a 25bp hike. CPI at 3.3%, above target; weak PMI complicates the picture.
May 2026 · MPC minutes
Federal Reserve
Jun 17–18
FOMC · 2026
Outcome (futures-implied)
Hold
58% · target 3.50–3.75%
Futures-implied probabilities
35%
Cut 25bp
58%
Hold ✓
7%
Hike
Current rate3.50–3.75%
Next move pricedDec 2026
CME FedWatch · as of close
European Central Bank
Jun 5
ECB Governing Council
Outcome (futures-implied)
Hike
61% · deposit 2.00%
Futures-implied probabilities
0%
Cut 25bp
39%
Hold
61%
Hike 25bp ✓
Current rate2.00%
Next hike pricedJun 2026
Eurex EURIBOR futures · indicative
Bank of England
Jun 19
MPC Meeting · 2026
Outcome (futures-implied)
Hold
67% · target 3.75%
Futures-implied probabilities
0%
Cut 25bp
67%
Hold ✓
33%
Hike
Current rate3.75%
Next move pricedJun 2026
SONIA futures · indicative
Currencieslive ↻
EUR/USD live
1.1647
+0.36%
GBP/USD live
1.3509
+0.57%
EUR/GBP live
0.8619
-0.23%
USD/JPY live
158.91
-0.16%
BTC/USD live
$77,382
+0.54%
Fixed income & creditmanually updated
Government bond yields
Country
1yr
3yr
5yr
10yr
🇺🇸US
4.20%+2bp
4.24%+3bp
4.30%+2bp
4.56%+1bp
🇬🇧UK
4.32%+3bp
4.55%+2bp
4.72%+1bp
4.97%unch
🇩🇪DE
2.08%-2bp
2.54%+1bp
2.78%+1bp
3.10%+2bp
Yield curve shape
🇺🇸 US 10y–2y
+49bpSteepening
🇬🇧 UK 10y–2y
+65bpNormal
🇩🇪 Bund 10y–2y
+102bpNormal
Bloomberg indicative · live
Credit spreads
Rating
🇺🇸 US
🇬🇧 UK
🇪🇺 EUR
🌎 EM
IG
98bp-2bp
112bpunch
104bp-1bp
168bp+4bp
HY
342bp+6bp
388bp+8bp
364bp+5bp
412bp+10bp
Junk
842bp+18bp
910bp+22bp
876bp+14bp
1,040bp+28bp
US IG–HY gap
244bp
Widening · risk-off
EM–US IG gap
70bp
Stable · contained
Credit regime
Cautious
Junk signal
Watch
Spreads in bps over govt bond. Bar = 1yr range. ICE BofA · daily
Commoditieslive ↻
Gold ETF proxy
$4,523
troy oz · -0.42%
Brent crude ETF proxy
$100.21
barrel · +0.71%
Silver ETF proxy
$78.00
troy oz · +0.0%
Natural gas ETF proxy
$4.62
MMBtu · +1.2%
Derivatives & volatilitylive ↻
VIX ETF proxy
16.59
S&P 500 30d impl. vol · -0.36%
Implied daily move
±1.05%
≈ ±78 pts on SPX 7,473
1yr low: 111yr high: 42
Moderate
CBOE · live
V2X
19.8
Euro Stoxx 50 30d impl. vol · -0.4 pts
Implied daily move
±1.25%
≈ ±75 pts on SX5E 6,019
1yr low: 131yr high: 46
ModerateV2X–VIX: +3.1pts
Eurex · live
Mag 7 implied vol
NVDA52.4% IV±3.30%High
TSLA61.8% IV±3.89%High
META32.1% IV±2.02%Mid
GOOGL28.6% IV±1.80%Mid
MSFT22.4% IV±1.41%Low
AAPL19.8% IV±1.25%Low
AMZN30.2% IV±1.90%Mid
Basket avg IV
±2.22%
Avg 35.3% IV · daily move est.
Low: 19.8%High: 61.8%
Elevated
30d ATM IV · daily move = IV ÷ √252 · live
Commodity implied vol
Gold18.2% IV±1.15%Low
Silver28.4% IV±1.79%Mid
Brent38.6% IV±2.43%High
Copper22.1% IV±1.39%Mid
Highest vol · Brent crude
±2.43% / day
38.6% IV · Iran conflict premium elevated
Low: 18.2%High: 38.6%
StressedOil vol driven by ME conflict
30d ATM IV · OTC options · indicative
Currency volatility
6.2%
EUR/USD
7.8%
GBP/USD
9.4%
USD/JPY
USD/CNH7.1%
EUR/GBP5.6%
AUD/USD8.2%
G10 vol index avg7.2 Elevated
OTC 1m ATM IV · indicative
Rate volatility · MOVE index
MOVE Index
124
+4.2 pts today
Stressed
82160
What it means
MOVE above 100 signals bond market stress. At 124, Treasuries are pricing meaningful Fed policy uncertainty.
